The post-COVID-19 world has been marked with an unprecedented level of ambiguity and uncertainty emerging from developments in various domains: the meteoric rise of Artificial Intelligence capabilities and other technological advances, geopolitical tensions, tariffs and trade wars, challenging pursuits of net-zero goals, demographic shifts, etc. These developments not only make the future uncertain, but it is also often difficult to understand how they may affect an organization. Leading an organization in such a world is incredibly challenging and requires a different way of thinking and management than that based on the optimization of certainties and quantifiable risks.

This program introduces a strategic planning process called “Scenario Planning” – a process used since the 1950s for making critical organizational decisions in ambiguous and unpredictable environments. The course uses a hands-on approach involving a combination of lectures, breakout group workshops, presentations, and discussions.

The program is particularly suitable for senior leaders and members of boards of directors, who are responsible for stewarding organizations in environments marked by large systemic changes (such as those mentioned above). The traditional decision-making tools focusing on operational excellence and risk management are inadequate in such environments when it is difficult to know what those systemic changes even mean for the organization and how they unfold. Scenario planning is a systematic way to learn about the changing environment, structure the uncertainty, synthesize divergent views, and chart a way forward using adaptable and resilient strategies – instead of getting paralyzed by the fear of the unknown.